Werewolf CXXXIII The Dark Knight Speculation Thread

Narcizo wrote:And there's no way on God's Earth that Hoops is a villager.

Usually when I make big predictions like that, they turn out horribly wrong. The one thing that makes me think hoops might have done a fake reveal is that he didn't use me for a scan choice. He had made a couple comments that had me thinking he was Dawes because he was pretty sure I was a citizen the day I was on the block. So I was expecting to see that he had scanned me. I almost hope Crimson isn't Dawes after him saying NTN did just one scan before he took over for him. I hate it when people with an important role don't live up to it and miss scans and such due to inactivity. Drives me crazy. But Autumn stepping in to replace him in the middle of a day makes me think CF is the real Dawes.

Admin wrote:I had a stellar D1, opening the voting on the seer, then moving my vote to the BG.

At least you improved your vote. (Bhlloy wasn't the BG, by the way, not really sure what powers he had other than a double vote). I, on the other hand, switched from a wolf to a named role because people were following too easily onto said wolf. And yet you and I were the first two night kills.

thomkal wrote:

Usually when I make big predictions like that, they turn out horribly wrong.

Me too but there's just no way he's not a wolf here. I'd bet my house on it.

Oh right, I mixed bhlloy up with Lathum. I would imagine he had more than a double vote to his role though.

If Hoops is a wolf and pulls this off can we say he won the game for the wolves? He has lead the charge on the lynch victim the last 3 or 4 days and has really put them in prime position to win.

Clearly he's their MVW.

I don't know why, but this salty response by CF cracked me up (in all honesty, I'm not sure he's been helping his case with his emotional responses though):


Quote:
Originally Posted by CrimsonFox
You see, there is this game called werewolf. And in it you try and determine who are good players and who are bad players. You do so by judging which statments are false and real and look up voting actions and such and by process of elimination as you find more wolves, you can figure out who the rest of the wolves are.

It's a fascinating game. I'll teach it to you sometime.

Haha I laughed when I saw that also. Crimson is not in a good mood today and he has all but alienated Mr. Bug at this point after his last post. We will see if Bug is a wolf because if not and Crimson is good then he has all but sealed his coffin.

Yeah, I think he's really stressed about having to move and stuff. Stress and werewolf don't make very happy companions as I discovered in Chess and Rome. In the Rome game I totally freaked out at Poli (under duress I must say, in my defence). My problem is that my stress comes from the game so it can be a bit of a vicious circle. I think I've get a better grip on it now but who knows.

Thank God J23 can see things clearly. (More clearly than me, it seems). Why would CF fake-reveal if Hoops cleared him? He could just sit it out till the end.

I still think J23 is a cunning wolf though. I expect late night shenanighans if the vote is anything like close at deadline.

I think you have the wolves nailed Narcizo. J23 was quick to say there isn't necessarily a link between hoops and him and various other little hints with their interactions towards each other. That 'kill me Im just a vanilla villager' bit was quite a bold move by him though, I'm impressed he would try to pull that off. Will the other villagers sort it out? Presumably Bug will die tomorrow and then we'll have to see. I imagine CF will be joining us here tomorrow seeing as they have their cunning scanned.

I'm surprised the Chechen wasn't brutal.

Narcizo wrote:Actually, thinking about it, it could be 4:4 in which case the first cast vote would count - which would be Hoops.
Oh drama! There is a counter-reveal. I choose Crimson over Hoops any day of the week.

The newcomer does not approve of this post.

How much do you want me to say about the wolf play in this thread? I'm dying to talk about it, but I don't want to rain on the speculation parade.

I'm neutral on it. If others want it, I'm ok with it (I would definitely like to hear about it post-game if nothing else).

Big save by Abe, giving the village a bit more breathing room. Now they have a lynch in hand, unless Batman doesn't count in the village-wolf ratio for some reason or the wolves have a brutal that gets lynched.

Yeah, we knew there was a chance Batman might have some abilities left.

Having him both bodyguard and live through the experience was about as bad a result as we could have gotten.

I will probably say this is the game thread as well but awesome job Hoops. You played the village perfectly the last 3 or 4 days.

Zinto wrote:I will probably say this is the game thread as well but awesome job Hoops. You played the village perfectly the last 3 or 4 days.

Gaaaaah! As soon as you've read the last hour of night two you can see how he was being as wolfy as wolfy can be. Just less so than Chubby.
Got to agree with Hoops that the wolves were really up against the wall in this one if Batman can bodyguard as well unless the wolves have some super-duper-secret power or win condition. A seer and two bodyguards? Seems a bit out there. Imagine if the seer had actually scanned every day instead of, well, not scanning. I still think that they might only have to kill all the non-corrupt roles barring Batman. That would be Rachel and a police officer/police commissioner I think.

Path of least resistance says Bug today, CF nk:ed/possible brutal, Tyrith/DV lynched, mckerney nk:ed tomorrow. Game could be won by the wolves there if Bug isn't a wolf, which I'm nothing like as convinced of as everyone in the thread seems to be. At least the blocked nk gives the village another day, presuming the mob aren't solely after roles.

Ah! Conversion after two wolves are caught? That could also explain no night kill. Is that your surprise Hoops? PS chalk me down as another who thought the Cechen's dogs meant he was brutal.

Only being churlish though Hoops at the start. You're still the baddest wolf on the block.

You seemed to be much more on your game in this one compared to the Jungle Book. I guess you had more time for this one and the complex rules and Joker muddying the waters gave you more of a chance to work your evil, wolfish magic. You'd probably still be alive if you hadn't cleared the actual seer.

What I hate about these situations is that no-one seems to go back and look at the entire game and read what people have said on day one and two. Everyone seems to base their ideas on what happened in the last couple of days.

Meh! Why doesn't that work then? Trying to do the vote flow chart for day two but it won't format it.

Anyway Hoops, will it reveal anything if you say why mau made such a bogus fake reveal instead of revealing as a named role to try and flush someone out? That was, basically, what decided me that Chubby must be the cunning wolf.

Until you alluded to it, I forgot my initial observation that the wolves may have an alternative win condition to the 1:1 ratio since their win condition was never specified in the rules, unlike that of the village.

mauboy reveal - As a group, we didn't fully comprehend the differences between the citizens and the cops. The information was there, but we didn't process it as well as we should have.

personal involvement - I had time this week to get very involved, but the first couple of days were tough for me with so little access to FOFC. I think that the somewhat open nature of the game, coupled with the lack of role info upon death, made for a fun guessing game on both sides.

personal involvement, note #2 - I also realized that this might be my last game for awhile. I'm supposed to find out today if I will be getting an offer for a new job. If that happens, I'll be swamped for my last two weeks and the start of my time with the new company. So I really poured a lot of effort into this one over the past few days to try and have an appropriate send-off game.

wolves perspective - we basically felt like we had the game locked up as long as we got the night kill last night - and the only way that wasn't happening was if Batman had a bodyguard ability. Since that was in fact the case the game is incredibly uphill at this point. I'll only say that there are no super powers sitting on the wolf side that can turn this thing around ... nothing beyond getting villagers to make bad lynches.

Meh! Will I never get to be a wolf at the same time as you?

Good news about the job though, natch. Hope all goes well.

So lets get last guesses on the table - who are the final wolves?

Dunno. If I'd been in charge you'd have been lynched three days ago then we wouldn't be under so much pressure.
It's kind of hard to get a read on things because I haven't been keeping one of those running vote thingies and I can't be arsed reading back when I'm not in the game. J23 put a late vote in on Chubby on day two that was never going to save mau. I can't imagine a wolf doing that at that stage so despite what I've said till now I can't see him being a wolf. Tyrith's voting looks as good as anyone's at first glance but I was a bit surprised by his vote on mau on day one. If Tyrith thinks like me as a wolf then he doesn't want to be seen putting a vote in that brings a second candidate close to mau on day one. The vote was 5 to mau, 4 to zinto so he could have tied it up at 5-a-piece but he's got to know that that's going to look bad when mau comes up wolf as he likely will do pretty early. I think the natural villager move is to vote Zinto to get a tie as the villager doesn't know who the wolf is. The wolf move is to get the trust of being seen putting a wolf 2 votes ahead.. I felt like I faced a similar dilemma in Abe's game with DT. DT was a vote ahead when I was about to leave - I didn't want to leave my vote alone on someone or other so I was just about to move it onto DT when someone came along and voted the same as me so I felt better about leaving it where it was. I think Tyrith is a wolf. I'll go with Bug as the other wolf, although I'm not in the least bit sure about that bit.

J23 cunning - I had a lot of reasons listed but left en at home. I think Id take that to the bank. And I'll go with Bug as wolf as well. DV is possible, but seems unlikely you wouldn't give yourself a chance to win it all yesterday in a showdown. I can't buy Tyrith and mckerney was scanned clean.

Fair enough - I remember now. J23 would put in a vote like that on day two in the hopes of getting scanned so that's a possibility but I'll stick with Tyrith for now.

I guess I could see Tyrith with that reasoning Narc, I didnt pour into everything that closely. On reflection, you would think hoops is going to be scanned unless they thought Dent was the seer. With that in mind, it does seem reasonable for him to go antihioops from early on so that he buys trust and avoids a scan himself. If he's a wolf, I think he's done a brilliant job.

But I'm very very solidly sure that J23 is the cunning.

I guess the biggest argument about Tyrith is why would he still be around with his decent votes and being against hoops for a while when others were ready to follow him off the cliff? He should've been NK'ed a while back.

Well and the lack of mau-voter killings. Points to there being 2 wolves on mau day one, in my mind.

Ok - I said I wasn't sure about Bug, didn't I? Didn't I? See! No block yesterday and that would be the game for the wolves.
DV & Tyrith. Going to have to wriggle to get out of the scan results though. I think mckerney's overplayed his hand about Hoops being the cunning though - going to bring up questions about his being cleared.

Prepare for Crimson to bypass us all in #posts, in 9, 8, 7, 6....

Or not.
Is that (Batman being taken out) the surprise then Hoops? How did that happen?

At this point I'm going J23 and Tyrith. If you assume there's a cunning wolf, it doesn't make sense for them to vote Mau D1 IMO. There's a chance of DV based on his recent reactions since hoops accused him of being a villager...it sets off bells in my head. I am still standing by J23 as cunning though.

Narcizo wrote:Ok - I said I wasn't sure about Bug, didn't I? Didn't I? See! No block yesterday and that would be the game for the wolves.
DV & Tyrith. Going to have to wriggle to get out of the scan results though. I think mckerney's overplayed his hand about Hoops being the cunning though - going to bring up questions about his being cleared.

That is how we drew it up - so you can imagine my dismay when Batman gets to both bodyguard and live through it as well.

There is a very bad piece of news here for the wolves - one of the remaining wolves doesn't have the ability to do a night kill. So if we get down to the "wrong" last wolf, he won't be able to trim numbers in the night phase.

Yep, Tyrith jumps out with the tie-breaker right away, well done (though obviously all the villagers need to pile on with CF to give themselves a chance). I'm not surprised Batman could be killed after he got rid of Joker...or maybe it was after he used his BG abilities?

Anyway, the next lynch will be easy if CF put in an order and then it will be mckerney and DV vs. J23. Should be a fun conclusion.

hoopsguy wrote:

Narcizo wrote:Ok - I said I wasn't sure about Bug, didn't I? Didn't I? See! No block yesterday and that would be the game for the wolves.
DV & Tyrith. Going to have to wriggle to get out of the scan results though. I think mckerney's overplayed his hand about Hoops being the cunning though - going to bring up questions about his being cleared.

That is how we drew it up - so you can imagine my dismay when Batman gets to both bodyguard and live through it as well.

There is a very bad piece of news here for the wolves - one of the remaining wolves doesn't have the ability to do a night kill. So if we get down to the "wrong" last wolf, he won't be able to trim numbers in the night phase.

Oh wow, that's a twist (wonder if J23 was greasing the skids for that with the 'wolf forgot to send in a night kill' comment he had).

Admin wrote:Yep, Tyrith jumps out with the tie-breaker right away, well done (though obviously all the villagers need to pile on with CF to give themselves a chance). I'm not surprised Batman could be killed after he got rid of Joker...or maybe it was after he used his BG abilities?

Anyway, the next lynch will be easy if CF put in an order and then it will be mckerney and DV vs. J23. Should be a fun conclusion.

I talked with Autumn about it last night - while being a tad frustrated about how stuff broke - and he told me that Abe had a block, but in doing the block he took one of his two hits to kill.

What the wolves did not know (they knew they injured Batman) is that Batman would not have been able to block again tonight - so they could have taken out the seer last night. I don't really think that would have changed anything, given how this is going to play out.

Also, taking out Batman gives the wolves a minor victory - major was taking out Batman and then finishing with the 1:1 ratio with villagers.

My "surprise" was who the remaining two wolves were. We didn't plan to mess with Batman, just take the 1:1 ratio, until he blocked the Dawes kill. From there, the wolves decided to take the Batman "minor win" since it seemed substantially easier to get than citizens with the seer increasingly clearing people.

Well, if they had taken down CF last night, the village would've had to work for the lynch today. If CF put in a scan order, they have a guaranteed wolf to lynch today and then have to work out the cunning.

Admin wrote:Well, if they had taken down CF last night, the village would've had to work for the lynch today. If CF put in a scan order, they have a guaranteed wolf to lynch today and then have to work out the cunning.

Hmm.

Breaking news - cunning does get a night kill if/when he is last wolf remaining.

So the wolves do still have a meaningful shot at this one. Hurray!

[QUOTE=mckerney;2482503]I have to guess the wolves were worried Batman counted for two in the village count, otherwise they made a poor play when they seemingly had the votes to lynch DV instead of hoops and take us to 3-3. Unless DV is a wolf too.[/QUOTE]

Interesting point. Assuming Bug didn't move his vote (and didn't even after hoops basically revealed as wolf with five minutes left), if DV is a villager and the other two wolves were on, they could've made a last second switch and voted DV off. Of course, if Batman gets a block at that point, they're a bit screwed so that would be risky. But we know Tyrith was out for the deadline so assuming he's a wolf, that option wasn't open to them. Or DV is a wolf and they couldn't do it anyway.

First off welcome to the "losers lounge" hoops and congrats on a job well done. Looks like you guys took the "wolves would never do that" logic and threw it out the window here. I think its likely Crimson will scan Darth here since he seems sold on Tyrith being a citizen. To me it looked like Tyrith was playing "good wolf/bad wolf" with you the past couple days Hoops. The second wolf could be anybody now that we know that there is a cunning and he is a still in the game. He's going to be tough to ferret out. If its J23 though I may scream in frustration after I kept going back to the day 1 votes and saying one of them had to be a wolf.

For most of the game, we were role hunting. And we felt like we were in total control of the daytime voting process, so that gives you a lot more freedom to go "off the board" with the night kill.

Tyrith early vote suggests he was prepared for this and that means he's probably a wolf, I've come round and I'm pretty sure J23 is the other wolf. I think he can take home the win for the wolves. Should be an interesting last couple of days. (if Crimson got a scan in, otherwise it will be a painful single day).
What's the point of having a mechanic where the cunning wolf can't make a night kill and then saying he can if all the others die? He's not going to be making the night kill till all the other's die anyway.

The answer is Batman. The answer is always Batman.

Oh I see why they want the seer alive. If Tyrith and DV are the wolves then they hope he will scan the cunning to have a chance of the win. If they take out the seer it goes DV today and Tyrith tomorrow. I presume that Tyrith is the cunning.

I guess you could be right. Otherwise it made more sense to go after CF and hope the village would choose the villager between DV/Tyrith The way it makes sense is if they're afraid the cunning would get lynched in a DV/Tyrith runoff, which would point to the other unknown as the last wolf. Unless you think they're legitimately scared of other Batman powers and wanted to take him out immediately.

That would remind me of an old game of CR's where something similar happened (hoops as vanilla villager was NK'ed instead of the seer with endgame involving cunning to follow).