WW CXLVIII - Ancient Infection Speculation Thread

Been a while since I've done one of these. I had a lot of thoughts, but even as Zinto asked, I thought it might be best not to say anything because the village might need to have the infected as confused as they are. But here, I can be free to speculate.

First thing I thought of reading the thread this morning is Danny must be the doctor. That would explain a few things:

1. Why he tried to get heat Day 1 (along with being the lover)
2. Why he didn't want to get killed immediately (along with his profession that he wanted to help his side win first)
3. Why he hasn't been converted yet (he was the most logical candidate for conversion since Day 2 when bhlloy cleared him of any possibility of being a Transformed)
4. Why he's pulling the 'general instead of specific' nurse reveal this morning...probably a nurse sent him a report that Narc was infected but he doesn't know which nurse since they're sent anonymously.

In fact, do nurses even get the result of their scans? (rules are inconclusive). So presumably Danny's hoping someone will figure it out and kill him or, in case the village needs a little more space, maybe drawing a conversion chance from the Transformed if they aren't paying attention (which would obviously fail and they'd lose a conversion chance).

If it turns out Narc is a transformed I'm going to be pissed as I had my order on him a number of times and changed it. Funny game where you'd much rather get the #2 wolf(es) than the #1, but a very cool ruleset.

How absolutely insane was that mau and simbo thing? It's absolutely going to be the event that changes the way everyone plays and we'll never see anything like that again. For him to pull the real seer completely out of his ass, and then on top of that the real seer hits the mummy but the other seer already outed him so nobody believes it is nuts. Simbo's reveal was way more believable, it's just that the math was so far in mau's favor.

Yeah, I was very torn about it because I felt like Simbo had some things in his reveal that would've been very tough to plant ahead of time for a fake whereas the timing of when mau revealed seemed very questionable (but possible because he's a little unpredictable as a villager). The day we lynched Simbo, after Danny spoke out about not wanting to accidentally lynch the doctor or mummy hunter, I made a point of agreeing with that sentiment and switching to Simbo because I didn't want to let on that I knew we wouldn't be lynching the hunter.

But really, it wasn't that terrible that we lynched Simbo. He was already outed as the seer to EF, so after the day deadline, EF could've requested the infected kill Simbo and we wouldn't have gotten another scan in anyway. There was a reasonable chance he was Transformed and it would've been foolish if we hadn't lynched him in that case. The infected also ended up killing cougar, who wasn't roled and was a reasonable choice for us to lynch that day. The worst part of that situation is we didn't get any vote history out of that day.

The way the vote went down at deadline certainly looks very bad for LSG. I would be very surprised if she was not Transformed (she would've been an odd target to infect).

If it was villager-villager, then that was a very nice switch by EF at the end to make it look like he was 'saving' LSG. One thing I was wondering if he thought this post from Brit meant he was the doctor (relevant part bolded):

Won't deny UTR play; this game is complex, and most of the effort I've spent in this game has just been thinking about the possible permutations of roles in play, rather than gumming up the thread with incomplete/inconsistent/incorrect analysis. If you don't mind me asking, what's wrong with the Day 1 vote? We've had runaways so far, and that has contributed to my being under the radar. With votes such as the early vote for Zinto yesterday, I'm trying to generate a little thought about the players whose in-thread behavior has pinged me. In a game like this where there is so much changing sides, I think voting analysis will prove less useful than normal.

At this point, I have a better idea of who not to lynch than who to lynch. And to bump a previous question, would the village be served to lynch the cultist today?

Brit, I know you just signed up, so I'll answer your questions here since I didn't do it in the thread (sorry for that). Nothing was really 'wrong' with your day 1 vote, but at the time I put you out as a candidate, you were the only uncleared left on a confirmed (at the time) villager, so that made your vote stick out to me. I had to choose between a lot of quiet people, so there was almost nothing really to go on other than votes. And the village would definitely not have been served by lynching the cultist for the reason that the cultist counts as a villager for purposes of win condition even though he wins with the wolves. Additionally, the only way for the village to stop people from getting infected every night is by lynching Transformed, so they are the highest priority target for lynching over any other wolves. Even in a more vanilla game, the village doesn't usually take time out to lynch the cultist because that only puts the wolves closer to winning by removing a 'villager' from the win ratio.

Am I welcomed here?

If only your minions had listened to you when you suggested they night kill me EF.

You had a nice game I thought. It must have been a fun role to play, trying to figure out how much to give away to the village in order to organize the wolves.

Would have been fun to still be in to mess with Danny for the weekend.

It became a very fun role to play. I actually wasn't really feeling the game until I got the heat on me and realized that I wasn't going anywhere. Then I saw through mau early with his reveal so I wanted to draw the vote towards myself that night and then towards Simbo the next. I thought for sure it wouldn't work. Last night was just the cherrry on top with the deadline fun.

Ironically enough. The only reason I wasn't active early in the game was because I just wasn't feeling into it. That got me called out for suspicion though my play style had nothing to do with my role at that point.

Well, Zinto cleared things up a lot. Now it strongly looks like Jackal and LSG are the remaining Transformed.

I thought this post from Narcizo was interesting:

The problem is that if an infected attacks a transformer then the
seer scans and voting record I've been using to narrow down transformer
suspects goes out the window. So it's not universally great if an
infected targets a transformer. Better for us if they target each
other.

That was something I had been thinking of as of late as well. Because the village never killed off a Transformed and there have been night kills every night there's been an infected, all the seer scans and infected scans by the nurses / doctors are valid and it's helped narrow down the Transformed to a large degree. In fact, it was probably to the benefit of the village that we botched the last lynch because with EF still around, another Transformed would have taken their place among the infected, whereas now the village will almost assuredly hit a Transformed and another won't be created because the mummy is dead.

Narcizo is probably going to figure out the right move now for the Infected is for all of them to target the remaining Transformed (in fact, it almost behooves the non-lynched Transformed to reveal a minute after deadline to make sure there are no screw-ups). Then the village will know the original Transformed has been downgraded to Infected, but the village will now have a larger pool of targets they need to work through in order to remove the last one. Not a great chance, but still possible, whereas if they kill off Zinto, the remaining Transformed won't be able to escape the following lynch (presuming the village still has the numbers, which I imagine they do).

EagleFan wrote:Then I saw through mau early with his reveal

Wait a minute, you didn't know his identity? I thought the mummy knew who all the evil players were.

Well, even if you didn't know he was cultist, I guess you would've known he was claiming Simbo was evil when you knew he wasn't.

Well, more muddling in the thread. This is getting fun.

Alright, so it's looking like the reveals thus far are true and I'm going to work with that info. Let's see what we have for infected info:

Night 1: Infection succeeds (Chief is target)
Night 2: Infection succeeds (Jackal is target)
Night 3: Infection ??? (??? is target)
Night 4: Infection ??? (??? is target)
Night 5: Infection ??? (??? is target)

We have confirmed (assuming reveals are true, which appears likely):

Danny (Nurse M)
Pass (scanned clean by another nurse)
Zinto (Doctor)
Jackal (cured last night)
mau (cultist)

We know Narcizo was a target one of the three nights and is currently infected, which leaves no more than two others that are infected among:
GE
CF
(the one of DV / KWhit / LSG that isn't Transformed)

It's possible there could be only 1 infected among them if they missed an infection one night or targeted Zinto during the past three nights or if they targeted me night 4 (I think it's unlikely they targeted me though). And actually, one of them is the nurse, so they can be cleared since they got in a scan last night which happens after the bite. GE and CF would be far more likely infected targets than the one of DV / KWhit / LSG, so I would think it more likely the other nurse is likely to be whichever of those three is not Transformed, which makes hitting a Transformed even easier if true.

Thus, the wolves don't quite have the numbers, 2 infected + 2 transformed + cultist vs. 6 villagers at best. Based on Eagle's comment the night before about being concerned, there might only be 1 infected because otherwise with a failed cure last night, the wolves would've had the numbers to win.

So it appears the village should win. The best way the wolves can confuse the issue is have the infected attack the transformed, thus making the village have to choose between GE or CF, but even in that case, the nurses can scan them and figure out who is infected and who is Transformed (unless it's only one of them, then it's just a pure guess, but in that case the numbers don't work well for the wolves anyway).

But we'll see. Maybe Zinto's pulling an inspired fake reveal here (seems rather unlikely, you'd have to think he's taking the chance that the other nurse has been converted and can 'confirm' his bogus reveal of info about the set of scans. Not only that, but since Pass is not Transformed, he'd have to hope Pass isn't the doctor and wasn't cured after having been bitten. Seems very unlikely).

Ok, puzzle mostly solved. We'll see what happens when the other nurse pops up and if the wolves try to fake reveal, though it's hard to see how that would work.

I will be very interested to get some ruleset feedback, especially from you JAG, after the game is over. I tweaked things a lot before game but I'm seeing things I maybe should have let alone. It's a hard set to balance because the game could very easily derail on the first two days one way or the other. I'm not a great analyst like you and Danny, which makes it harder in designing games.

Admin wrote:

EagleFan wrote:Then I saw through mau early with his reveal

Wait a minute, you didn't know his identity? I thought the mummy knew who all the evil players were.

Well, even if you didn't know he was cultist, I guess you would've known he was claiming Simbo was evil when you knew he wasn't.

Didn't know mau's identity. Only the transformed.

Oh wow, I really misinterpreted the rules on that item then.

I
just realized Pass could be the other nurse. That would be the reason
the other nurse hasn't revealed yet (unless they haven't logged
on yet).

With Jackal revealing that he didn't do the night kill
night 4, I think it's a slam dunk that CF was infected night 3, as GE was
scanned good by Simbo night 3. GE might be infected too, but it
would've had to have been done night 4 or 5.

So now it looks like LSG and Darth as Transformed seeing as she refused to vote for DV.

And Darth basically confirms it by avoiding LSG. Narc must have been converted N5 which is why he didn't really care where he put his vote. So either GE or KWhit was converted N4 unless they hit Zinto or I that evening. The question is will everyone show up today? No GE, KWhit, or CF thus far.

So let's say the village lynches a villager since there's talk of lynching KWhit, who I suspect to be a villager. What does that do for the numbers?

Currently 2 Transformed, 2-3 infected, 1 cultist, 1 doctor, 2 nurses, 2-3 normal villagers. Let's say normal villager dies in lynch, Narcizo is cured, Danny is bitten, Zinto is killed, would leave the situation as:

2 Transformed, 2-3 infected, 1 cultist, 1 nurse, 2-3 normal villagers. Wolves win easily after the Transformed reveal. Villagers could try fake revealing as Transformed, but they would have to guess what order the infected were infected and the wolves could easily just lynch any number of cleared villagers in Jackal / Pass / Narcizo (post-cure).

So as Danny said earlier in the day, today is do-or-die for the village.

EDIT: forgot that it will depend on how many infected out there actually have votes. Curing Narcizo in that sense is not so great for the village because he is the least likely to have a night kill by this point, since he was very likely to have been infected N5.

I have no idea what happened after I was killed (with the inside information) so I no longer know what a lynch result my yield.

I'm even more impressed with your game now EF, I really didn't expect you would make that move on D1. Well done.

I guess it may come down to which infected gets the night kill now.

I'm still trying to figure out what happened with the N3 infection. It wasn't GE, any of the dead villagers, or the nurses. Maybe it was Narcizo? Which in that case means that curing him is the right move and GE must have been the N4/N5 infection with one of the infections failing. So there will be two infected (only 1 with a vote), 2 Transformed, a cultist, vs. 4? villagers? So we'll see what happens with a tie vote I guess.

I think Narc was night 3.

Oh, and thank you. I figured that I had to do something out of the norm as the game seemed to be very tough from a wolf standpoint with what amounted to 4 seers floating around. Plus if Danny was going to stay around for a while that would short circuit his werewolf guide so he wouldn't think I had voted that way until he had no choice but to.

double dola: Oh, I was starting to sweat that move when he received a copule other votes.

That night kill choice is a bit puzzling instead of the doctor, which would have prevented another infected (probably GE) from being cured tonight. Of course it doesn't much matter if the tie-breaker doesn't allow the village to lynch a Transformed and prevent another infection.

You guys are more active than the thread. Entertain me!

Now with Danny out that thread is going to be completely dead.

Right about now is when it really would have been nice to still be in the game. I could have orchestrated end game. If they had only taken JAG out!!!

You played well EF. I didn't actually read any of your posts after it was confirmed you were bad. I purposely don't read posts by confirmed bad guys.

And it was equally well played by Crimson. I really thought Crimson was much more likely to be infected based on his play as well.

I missed the rule Crimson pointed out in thread, that once a person has killed they retain their voting power if they get re-infected. That being the case, wolves win.

Assuming they vote ;-)

There's just as good a chance a villager or two won't vote. Shame everyone disappeared after day 4.

Would be funny if GE doesn't show. Though I imagine LSG would give him a little subtle reminder about the game if needed.

EagleFan wrote:OPlus if Danny was going to stay around for a while that would short circuit his werewolf guide so he wouldn't think I had voted that way until he had no choice but to.

I know this was meant in jest, but I believe I play very dynamically in evaluating things. And I do let my gut have an influence as well, sometimes a big one. Unfortunately in this game, my gut also said Crimson was not a transformed, so I certainly wasn't going to go against the objective evidence and my gut. It was just a well played high risk / reward move that was heavily helped by very strong play by CrimsonFox. If I felt something off about him, I certainly would have looked into voting him more even with your vote. I was just wrong on just about everything this game, so it was par for the course that Crimson was the transformed lol.

I thought CF was acting out of character, but I assumed it meant he was converted as he would've been a logical choice for that (had he not been, you know, transformed).

Admin wrote:I thought CF was acting out of character, but I assumed it meant he was converted as he would've been a logical choice for that (had he not been, you know, transformed).

I agree, but it seemed to be in the mid game, not at the beginning so I assumed infected as well. Oh well!